Research
Hudson Valley · NY
Research
Metacrisis Theory
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Bibliography of Books, Theses, and Dissertations Mentioning a Metacrisis
A wide-ranging bibliography of books, theses, and dissertations that invoke a “metacrisis,” each paired with a representative quotation.
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Metacrisis: A Conceptual History
A six-thousand-year conceptual history of “metacrisis,” from Galen’s medicine to today’s polycrisis discourse, arguing for a definition that includes and transcends them all.
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Metacrisis and Metarevolution
The key definitions of metacrisis and metarevolution, gathered from across the 486 pages of A Metarevolutionary Manifesto.
Fenopan
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The aggregation law: why an index is less intermittent than its stocks, and why it cannot be why the index is rough
Aggregation explains why a stock index is less intermittent than its stocks but cannot make it rougher, so a rough common volatility factor is necessary.
Fenocrisis
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A discrimination atlas for Hawkes-versus-Cox model selection: where self-excitation and latent-regime clustering can be told apart
A known-truth atlas maps where Hawkes self-excitation and Cox regime-clustering can be told apart, and where they mimic each other.
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Consequence entanglement, measured: a falsifiable operationalization of the polycrisis severity claim
Tested on conflict and disaster data, the polycrisis claim that crises worsen each other holds only within domains, not across them.
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Dominoes or weather? Separating self-excitation from latent-regime clustering, in three forms
Two mechanisms that both explain crisis clustering are often statistically indistinguishable at realistic sample sizes.
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Reporting artifacts in crisis event streams, measured — and a declaration standard for the field
Reporting artifacts in crisis catalogues can create or erase cross-domain coupling, so some estimates that pass raw nulls fail a declared baseline family.
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The first exact-likelihood, held-out test of cross-domain crisis entanglement
A held-out, exact-likelihood test finds no cross-domain timing entanglement between crises once reporting baselines are accounted for.
Fenophone
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Does the Markov-Switching Multifractal describe real music? A fitting pipeline and a statistical Turing test
Fitting an MSM volatility model to real piano and drum performances captures their multifractal intensity but not enough to fool a classifier.
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Exogenous cascades versus self-excitation: distinguishing Markov-Switching-Multifractal Cox processes from Hawkes processes, with an application to musical onsets
Real piano onset streams favor exogenous regime-switching (MSM-Cox) over self-exciting Hawkes processes in 84% of MAESTRO performances.
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From Latent Cascade to Note Stream: How Scaling Exponents Survive Musical Quantization
A deterministic quantizer preserves an MSM instrument's latent scaling exponent; routing sets which exponent transports, contrast how much registers.
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From Ratio to Scaling Law: The Mutual Properties of Music and Mathematics, and the Fenophone as a Measured Instrument
It traces music and mathematics from Pythagorean ratio to multifractal scaling laws and builds the Fenophone to test them.
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The Fenophone: A Musical Instrument Built on the Markov-Switching Multifractal, with CI-Verified Spectral Invariants
A browser music instrument built on the Markov-switching multifractal, with statistical properties of its output enforced in CI.
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The Markov-Switching Multifractal as a Generative Model of Musical Intensity: An Instrument, Measurements, and a Research Programme
An instrument built on the Markov-Switching Multifractal turns financial-volatility dynamics into music with measured multifractal structure.
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Theorems as Instrument Design: Formal Guarantees and Statistical Contracts in a Generative Musical Instrument
A generative musical instrument treats its playability claims as formal theorems and CI gates that catch slow statistical drift.
Fenocosm
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A hierarchical regime cascade versus the damped random walk on 21 years of GRS 1915+105 and Cyg X-1
A Markov-switching multifractal cascade beats the damped random walk on 21 years of GRS 1915+105 data, but not on Cyg X-1.
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Hidden multi-state structure versus the piecewise-Poisson flare rate on 50 years of GOES/XRS solar flares
On 50 years of GOES/XRS flares, a hidden multi-state model beats the piecewise-Poisson rate on parsimony but not on raw likelihood fit.
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The Markov-switching multifractal as an estimable propagating-fluctuations model
An exact filter recovers the MSM cascade contrast down to ~0.06 counts/bin, below where the signal vanishes from the moments.
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The width and the null
On a binomial cascade the standard MFDFA multifractality test detects only 1 of 24 cases while a wavelet-scattering omnibus flags all 24.
Fenosoma
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An exact-likelihood test of the cascade hypothesis in heartbeat dynamics
An exact-likelihood test finds the multiplicative-cascade model of heartbeat dynamics loses to linear alternatives on all 83 records.
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Two instruments on one null: the reported multifractality of the human heartbeat, re-audited
Re-auditing the human heartbeat, a sharper detector finds nonlinear structure on 54/54 healthy records where the standard MFDFA width mostly finds none.