Research
Hudson Valley · NY
Research
Metacrisis Theory
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Bibliography of Books, Theses, and Dissertations Mentioning a Metacrisis
A wide-ranging bibliography of books, theses, and dissertations that invoke a “metacrisis,” each paired with a representative quotation.
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Metacrisis: A Conceptual History
A six-thousand-year conceptual history of “metacrisis,” from Galen’s medicine to today’s polycrisis discourse, arguing for a definition that includes and transcends them all.
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Metacrisis and Metarevolution
The key definitions of metacrisis and metarevolution, gathered from across the 486 pages of A Metarevolutionary Manifesto.
Leibniz Legible
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Leibniz Legible: an open access layer for the digitized Leibniz Nachlass (project statement, September 2026)
The project statement of Leibniz Legible: the whole digitized Nachlass machine-read (236,210 pages, 13.5 million lines) with per-line confidence and provenance, 297,424 retro-aligned ground-truth lines, a search and IIIF layer in public beta, and an honest account of what the next model can buy.
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Reproducing the PHILIUMM Leibniz HTR model, and benchmarking frontier vision-language models on Leibniz's hand (Leibniz Legible, Phase B1)
An independent reproduction of the PHILIUMM Leibniz HTR model under a frozen protocol (7.95% CER against a claimed 8.33%), and the first published numbers for zero-shot vision-language models on Leibniz's hand: four to ten times worse.
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Retro-aligned ground truth for the Leibniz Nachlass: alignment prototype, factory yield, and a preliminary audit (Leibniz Legible, Phases B2 to C2)
Retro-alignment of copyright-expired Akademie-Ausgabe reading text onto machine transcriptions: 98.8% yield at 97.5% precision in the prototype, 297,424 minted ground-truth lines at scale, and a hand audit published as the unfinished work it is.
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The digitized Leibniz Nachlass by the numbers: a corpus census of the GWLB digital collections (Leibniz Legible, Phase A1)
The first published page count of the digitized Leibniz Nachlass from the library's own metadata: 2,225 works and 236,795 page images, by collection, with the IIIF-versus-static delivery split and the statistics of the full 395.6 GB image pull.
Fenopan
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The irreversible linear null: every surrogate family in the standard toolbox is time-reversible by construction, so no test built on one can fail on a time-asymmetry statistic
Every surrogate family in the standard toolbox is time-reversible by construction, so an irreversible linear null must be raced before a time-asymmetry excess can mean nonlinearity.
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The Metrology of Latent Hierarchy
One multiplicative cascade, run as an instrument and then in reverse as an inference engine across music, X-ray binaries, heartbeats and crises, returns a calibrated map rather than a theory.
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The aggregation law: why an index is less intermittent than its stocks, and why it cannot be why the index is rough
Aggregation explains why a stock index is less intermittent than its stocks but cannot make it rougher, so a rough common volatility factor is necessary.
Fenocrisis
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A discrimination atlas for Hawkes-versus-Cox model selection: where self-excitation and latent-regime clustering can be told apart
A known-truth atlas maps where Hawkes self-excitation and Cox regime-clustering can be told apart, and where they mimic each other.
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Consequence entanglement, measured: a falsifiable operationalization of the polycrisis severity claim
Tested on conflict and disaster data, the polycrisis claim that crises worsen each other holds only within domains, not across them.
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Dominoes or weather? Separating self-excitation from latent-regime clustering, in three forms
Two mechanisms that both explain crisis clustering are often statistically indistinguishable at realistic sample sizes.
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Reporting artifacts in crisis event streams, measured — and a declaration standard for the field
Reporting artifacts in crisis catalogues can create or erase cross-domain coupling, so some estimates that pass raw nulls fail a declared baseline family.
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The first exact-likelihood, held-out test of cross-domain crisis entanglement
A held-out, exact-likelihood test finds no cross-domain timing entanglement between crises once reporting baselines are accounted for.
Fenophone
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Does the Markov-Switching Multifractal describe real music? A fitting pipeline and a statistical Turing test
Fitting an MSM volatility model to real piano and drum performances captures their multifractal intensity but not enough to fool a classifier.
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Exogenous cascades versus self-excitation: distinguishing Markov-Switching-Multifractal Cox processes from Hawkes processes, with an application to musical onsets
Real piano onset streams favor exogenous regime-switching (MSM-Cox) over self-exciting Hawkes processes in 84% of MAESTRO performances.
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From Latent Cascade to Note Stream: How Scaling Exponents Survive Musical Quantization
A deterministic quantizer preserves an MSM instrument's latent scaling exponent; routing sets which exponent transports, contrast how much registers.
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From Ratio to Scaling Law: The Mutual Properties of Music and Mathematics, and the Fenophone as a Measured Instrument
It traces music and mathematics from Pythagorean ratio to multifractal scaling laws and builds the Fenophone to test them.
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The Fenophone: A Musical Instrument Built on the Markov-Switching Multifractal, with CI-Verified Spectral Invariants
A browser music instrument built on the Markov-switching multifractal, with statistical properties of its output enforced in CI.
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The Markov-Switching Multifractal as a Generative Model of Musical Intensity: An Instrument, Measurements, and a Research Programme
An instrument built on the Markov-Switching Multifractal turns financial-volatility dynamics into music with measured multifractal structure.
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Theorems as Instrument Design: Formal Guarantees and Statistical Contracts in a Generative Musical Instrument
A generative musical instrument treats its playability claims as formal theorems and CI gates that catch slow statistical drift.
Fenocosm
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A 24-hour M-class flare forecast built from the GOES/XRS event record alone is worth about what recalibration and an eleven-parameter logistic make of it
Recalibration is worth more than the hierarchy's whole margin over persistence, and an eleven-parameter logistic on the same daily counts beats the calibrated 64-state filter.
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Nine instruments, five data forms, eight audited papers: a calibrated mirror for published multifractality claims
Pooled over eight audited papers, the published decision rules flag the field's canonical cascade on 243/384 realisations and a single isolated singularity on 302/480 — the same rate.
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The surrogate band and its three readings
On 987 public lexical-decision series the same thirty surrogates flag 51, 63 or 478 of them, depending only on which reading of "the 95% confidence interval" is used.
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A hierarchical regime cascade versus the damped random walk on 21 years of GRS 1915+105 and Cyg X-1
A Markov-switching multifractal cascade beats the damped random walk on 21 years of GRS 1915+105 data, but not on Cyg X-1.
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Hidden multi-state structure versus the piecewise-Poisson flare rate on 50 years of GOES/XRS solar flares
On 50 years of GOES/XRS flares, a hidden multi-state model beats the piecewise-Poisson rate on parsimony but not on raw likelihood fit.
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The Markov-switching multifractal as an estimable propagating-fluctuations model
An exact filter recovers the MSM cascade contrast down to ~0.06 counts/bin, below where the signal vanishes from the moments.
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The width and the null
On a binomial cascade the standard MFDFA multifractality test detects only 1 of 24 cases while a wavelet-scattering omnibus flags all 24.
Fenosoma
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An exact-likelihood test of the cascade hypothesis in heartbeat dynamics
An exact-likelihood test finds the multiplicative-cascade model of heartbeat dynamics loses to linear alternatives on all 83 records.
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Two instruments on one null: the reported multifractality of the human heartbeat, re-audited
Re-auditing the human heartbeat, a sharper detector finds nonlinear structure on 54/54 healthy records where the standard MFDFA width mostly finds none.