Fenoflare

Fenoflare is a live, daily now-cast of the odds of an M-class solar flare in the next 24 hours, forecast from the GOES/XRS flare record alone through a Markov-switching multifractal cascade with a Platt calibration — the same cascade engine that drives the Fenophone, run here on Fenocosm's flare research and scored live rather than in a paper.

What is novel is not the forecast alone but how it is kept honest. Every forecast is scored on a public, append-only ledger that is hash-chained, Ed25519-signed, and anchored with OpenTimestamps — cryptographic tamper-evidence applied to a public space-weather forecast record. The scoreboard displays the forecast alongside its own baselines — persistence, climatology, and a cheap logistic challenger — and does not hide when a baseline wins: Fenoflare's own honesty box records that a logistic regression on seven days of flare counts currently scores better than the calibrated cascade.

Fenoflare is not operational space-weather guidance. In its own words, it is a research demonstration and baseline layer: only the 24-hour M-class forecast is scored, and its X-class tile is a display of a sealed re-run, not a scored product.