Evan Atlas — Research Open-access papers by Evan Tabak Atlas, each with a canonical DOI and a directly readable PDF. https://evanatlas.com/research/ 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlas https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A discrimination atlas for Hawkes-versus-Cox model selection: where self-excitation and latent-regime clustering can be told apart https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217366 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A known-truth atlas maps where Hawkes self-excitation and Cox regime-clustering can be told apart, and where they mimic each other. A hierarchical regime cascade versus the damped random walk on 21 years of GRS 1915+105 and Cyg X-1 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217321 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A Markov-switching multifractal cascade beats the damped random walk on 21 years of GRS 1915+105 data, but not on Cyg X-1. An exact-likelihood test of the cascade hypothesis in heartbeat dynamics https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217367 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 An exact-likelihood test finds the multiplicative-cascade model of heartbeat dynamics loses to linear alternatives on all 83 records. Consequence entanglement, measured: a falsifiable operationalization of the polycrisis severity claim https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217356 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 Tested on conflict and disaster data, the polycrisis claim that crises worsen each other holds only within domains, not across them. Does the Markov-Switching Multifractal describe real music? A fitting pipeline and a statistical Turing test https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217313 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 Fitting an MSM volatility model to real piano and drum performances captures their multifractal intensity but not enough to fool a classifier. Dominoes or weather? Separating self-excitation from latent-regime clustering, in three forms https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217355 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 Two mechanisms that both explain crisis clustering are often statistically indistinguishable at realistic sample sizes. Exogenous cascades versus self-excitation: distinguishing Markov-Switching-Multifractal Cox processes from Hawkes processes, with an application to musical onsets https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217314 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 Real piano onset streams favor exogenous regime-switching (MSM-Cox) over self-exciting Hawkes processes in 84% of MAESTRO performances. From Latent Cascade to Note Stream: How Scaling Exponents Survive Musical Quantization https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217301 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A deterministic quantizer preserves an MSM instrument's latent scaling exponent; routing sets which exponent transports, contrast how much registers. From Ratio to Scaling Law: The Mutual Properties of Music and Mathematics, and the Fenophone as a Measured Instrument https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217312 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 It traces music and mathematics from Pythagorean ratio to multifractal scaling laws and builds the Fenophone to test them. Hidden multi-state structure versus the piecewise-Poisson flare rate on 50 years of GOES/XRS solar flares https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217325 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 On 50 years of GOES/XRS flares, a hidden multi-state model beats the piecewise-Poisson rate on parsimony but not on raw likelihood fit. Reporting artifacts in crisis event streams, measured — and a declaration standard for the field https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217346 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 Reporting artifacts in crisis catalogues can create or erase cross-domain coupling, so some estimates that pass raw nulls fail a declared baseline family. The aggregation law: why an index is less intermittent than its stocks, and why it cannot be why the index is rough https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217316 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 Aggregation explains why a stock index is less intermittent than its stocks but cannot make it rougher, so a rough common volatility factor is necessary. The Fenophone: A Musical Instrument Built on the Markov-Switching Multifractal, with CI-Verified Spectral Invariants https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217295 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A browser music instrument built on the Markov-switching multifractal, with statistical properties of its output enforced in CI. The first exact-likelihood, held-out test of cross-domain crisis entanglement https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217344 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A held-out, exact-likelihood test finds no cross-domain timing entanglement between crises once reporting baselines are accounted for. The Markov-Switching Multifractal as a Generative Model of Musical Intensity: An Instrument, Measurements, and a Research Programme https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217299 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 An instrument built on the Markov-Switching Multifractal turns financial-volatility dynamics into music with measured multifractal structure. The Markov-switching multifractal as an estimable propagating-fluctuations model https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217319 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 An exact filter recovers the MSM cascade contrast down to ~0.06 counts/bin, below where the signal vanishes from the moments. The width and the null https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217337 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 On a binomial cascade the standard MFDFA multifractality test detects only 1 of 24 cases while a wavelet-scattering omnibus flags all 24. Theorems as Instrument Design: Formal Guarantees and Statistical Contracts in a Generative Musical Instrument https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217298 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A generative musical instrument treats its playability claims as formal theorems and CI gates that catch slow statistical drift. Two instruments on one null: the reported multifractality of the human heartbeat, re-audited https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22217276 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 Re-auditing the human heartbeat, a sharper detector finds nonlinear structure on 54/54 healthy records where the standard MFDFA width mostly finds none. Bibliography of Books, Theses, and Dissertations Mentioning a Metacrisis https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22255991 2026-04-20T00:00:00.000Z 2026-04-20T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A wide-ranging bibliography of books, theses, and dissertations that invoke a “metacrisis,” each paired with a representative quotation. Metacrisis: A Conceptual History https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22255989 2026-03-12T00:00:00.000Z 2026-03-12T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 A six-thousand-year conceptual history of “metacrisis,” from Galen’s medicine to today’s polycrisis discourse, arguing for a definition that includes and transcends them all. Metacrisis and Metarevolution https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22255993 2024-04-21T00:00:00.000Z 2024-04-21T00:00:00.000Z Evan Tabak Atlashttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338 The key definitions of metacrisis and metarevolution, gathered from across the 486 pages of A Metarevolutionary Manifesto.